Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 83067.751774 87689.733988 92311.131799 97275.386815 102453.714400 107692.726858 113390.442785
2025-02-23 75382.282956 82455.453118 89727.073148 97751.193266 106346.945243 115268.404555 125217.460589
2025-03-02 69691.189494 78407.036802 87565.690245 97886.077596 109170.400795 121112.342237 134684.018208
2025-03-09 66119.384441 76148.642984 86879.797096 99181.438132 112857.542048 127559.040515 144521.101265
2025-03-16 62186.612968 73138.000887 85046.713091 98907.515983 114544.057443 131584.491300 151504.512979
2025-03-23 59939.971070 71807.837215 84897.019091 100334.682580 117971.582365 137419.030523 160408.606275
2025-03-30 57685.544697 70301.762368 84399.832072 101231.144614 120683.926102 142364.185747 168254.269570
2025-04-06 55251.426857 68442.876408 83368.132299 101392.909285 122452.336172 146158.595025 174735.889098
2025-04-13 52934.963687 66600.124010 82244.892147 101344.695363 123888.801911 149504.218221 180654.810362
2025-04-20 51674.317703 65935.409686 82437.369033 102781.037137 127013.264586 154776.495913 188802.554225
2025-04-27 50492.549631 65298.919163 82606.562093 104141.543591 130014.463844 159889.855423 196772.135139
2025-05-04 49050.390029 64278.251077 82256.772307 104829.416609 132177.092448 163995.387235 203553.626213
2025-05-11 47301.634530 62837.236719 81367.850825 104849.690319 133542.758257 167184.019431 209307.541963
2025-05-18 45913.445932 61794.158141 80922.490729 105375.648918 135498.024740 171072.107513 215914.965696
2025-05-25 44427.395015 60571.495730 80205.685838 105523.284856 136958.314702 174346.269597 221783.516457
2025-06-01 43627.676529 60185.385479 80500.040566 106900.731173 139915.376422 179432.662411 229865.063698
2025-06-08 42093.735588 58802.549461 79494.767463 106609.850731 140774.309285 181942.491128 234804.481645
2025-06-15 41475.626241 58580.720766 79937.460388 108126.312855 143877.083736 187207.344856 243140.744166
2025-06-22 40641.579078 58044.278607 79952.079033 109078.722094 146261.623673 191589.043142 250409.292554
2025-06-29 39509.816578 57076.807014 79378.943593 109250.572315 147640.003812 194714.144502 256127.918879
2025-07-06 38338.902015 56020.082349 78656.449446 109199.353649 148711.163559 197442.853894 261353.178771
2025-07-13 37885.433839 55911.059902 79157.828906 110725.102774 151795.859465 202704.023991 269770.791893
2025-07-20 37421.774966 55770.044691 79603.455771 112170.072285 154777.741231 207848.504593 278071.565632